Ratidzo Makombe
Amartya Sen, an Indian economist and philosopher, famously remarked that famines do not occur in countries with democratic political institutions.
When this statement was made, climate change had not become a pressing matter, and its impacts were not severely felt. However, as at 2023, about 70% of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region’s population depended on agriculture for food and income, making people’s livelihoods reliant on rainfall and vulnerable to climate change.
In 2024, the region experienced the driest February in 40 years, and the effects of El Niño could result in a catastrophic drought this year. SADC is facing threats of an upcoming regional drought, and according to Sen, “the diverse political freedoms available in a democratic state, including regular elections, free newspapers and freedom of speech, must be seen as the real force behind eliminating famine”.
However, the reality the SADC community is facing does not reflect Sen’s sentiments. As at February 29, President Hakainde Hichilema of Zambia declared a national disaster after drought resulted in an agricultural crisis, which he states has been influenced by climate change and the El-Niño weather phenomenon. Zambia has lost about a million hectares of planted area crops, which will result in food insecurity for 1 million Zambians.
In Malawi, El-Niño is forecast to negatively impact 22.5% of maize production, with 9/10 farming households producing maize and using 70% of their land to grow this staple.
The most significant impacts of this drought have been experienced in the southernmost parts of Malawi.
On the other hand, Zimbabwe’s rain-fed crops have been classified as a write-off this season due to lack of rain.
Moreover, the government and donor institutes are currently supporting 2.7 million people who are food insecure.
Eastern Botswana has also experienced high temperatures and below-average rainfall, and as a result, Vice-President Slumber Tsogwane declared 2024 the year of drought.
To mitigate the impacts, the state has increased drought relief programmes.
Lastly, according to Mozambique’s National Institute for Disaster Risk Management and Reduction, 1.8 million people are projected to be at risk of cyclones, floods, and drought in the 2023/2024 rainy/cyclonic season.
Overall, the SADC region faces food insecurity threats. At the state level, each country has a strategy to mitigate drought impacts due to El Niño and climate change. The solutions, however, have proven that individual action plans do not foster positive results because they have been reactionary, not policy implementation-based.
There is a need for a comprehensive and collective implementation strategy to mitigate the impacts of drought in the region. SADC heads of state recently met to discuss the most recent cholera outbreak on February 2, and this was after the fact. The same cannot be done with regard to looming drought threats.
Co-ordinating resources only when the worst effects of the drought become noticeable would be unfortunate because, at that stage, donors would have been swamped by individual national plans subject to El Niño conditions. Thus, the Drought Risk Management and Mitigation Strategy for 2022 to 2032 must be implemented as soon as possible to minimise drought impacts in the region.
First, SADC member states must mobilise resources to finance drought co-ordination structures under each member state’s established National Drought Plan.
Each member state needs to approach relevant government departments, including international relations, finance and diplomatic missions and should initiate negotiations for sizeable disbursements of humanitarian aid from multilateral institutions, non-profit organisations and bilateral partners. This is a shortterm solution to absorb the shocks that countries face.
During drought seasons, it is pertinent for countries to end import bans on staple foods so citizens can purchase them from countries that have a surplus. For example, Zimbabwe has an import ban on maize, while Botswana has extended its import ban on fresh produce from South Africa.
On the other hand, Malawi banned the import of unmilled maize from Kenya and Tanzania, only to allow aid from the World Food Programme, which sources the maize from Tanzania. Allowing citizens to import food from different countries will reduce the burden on governments to provide for their citizens during drought spells and alleviate the burden of non-profit organisations to assist only those in absolute need. This holistic approach at the regional level will lessen the burden of climate change and El Niño.
Additionally, there is a need for a systemic implementation of community-based initiatives in all SADC countries, starting with the most vulnerable countries. Since drought is a cyclical event experienced every 10 years until recently, some grass-roots communities have sound knowledge of fostering resilience and adaptation.
Including the knowledge from grass-roots communities who have previously experienced drought and successfully mitigated it aids with future drought spells. Implementing community knowledge at the national and regional levels can lessen the impacts of droughts.
Droughts can be complex and bring problems beyond water scarcity and food insecurity. In the case of Zambia and Zimbabwe, both countries rely on hydroelectric power and are currently experiencing unprecedented power shortages. Thus, when crafting a comprehensive drought response, taking stock of all adverse effects on the region is essential. The impacts of drought go beyond food security and include job and health security.
Sen’s statement that democracies do not face famine might be too simplistic because of the complexities of food insecurity in the SADC region.
However, there is truth in that the law stands between food availability and access and in a democratic state, the people are theoretically at the centre of power. Thus, the laws and policies enforced by countries should best serve the people. Looking at the drought as a regional threat is a holistic approach which seeks to benefit the communities these democratic states have been called to serve.
Makombe is a doctoral candidate in the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of Johannesburg and a researcher at the University of Johannesburg’s Institute for Pan-African Thought and Conversation.
Cape Times