Durban — The South African Weather Service (Saws) has indicated that Mpumalanga, Limpopo and KwaZulu-Natal are expected to be affected by the tropical low-pressure system which is in the Mozambique Channel.
According to a Sunday afternoon update on the Météo-France website, a meteorological service, a low-pressure system is currently present over the South-West Indian Ocean.
Météo-France said tropical depression 08-20232024 continues to intensify. It presents a high risk of reaching the tropical storm stage between this Sunday evening and Monday, before a probable impact on southern Mozambique.
It said that system 08-20232024 continues to show signs of intensification and reached the stage of tropical depression this Sunday.
“On a trajectory oriented towards the west then south-west, an intensification to the stage of moderate tropical storm is envisaged by next night (in case of baptism, the next name is ‘FILIPO’), then possibly into a strong storm tropical from Monday evening, before a probable landfall on the coast of Mozambique during the night from Monday to Tuesday or Tuesday morning between the extreme south of the province of Sofala and the province of Inhambane,” Météo-France said.
“A significant deterioration in weather conditions (strong winds and even locally destructive winds, heavy rain) and sea conditions is therefore expected in the southern provinces of Mozambique from Monday. These disturbed conditions could persist there until Wednesday before the system moves away on Thursday over the ocean off the south-east of the country.”
Saws said that currently, a weak tropical low-pressure system is positioned in the Mozambique Channel, between Mozambique and Madagascar.
“During the past week, the system has drifted slowly around the eastern and southern parts of the Mozambique Channel region, causing heavy thundery downpours over the eastern coastline of Madagascar,” Saws said.
“Thus far, surface winds in association with the system have not been particularly strong or damaging. In the days ahead, however, the system is expected to begin deepening and intensifying, as early as this evening. At this stage, the primary regions at risk are the southern coastal regions of Mozambique, southwards of Beira.”
At 8am South Africa Standard Time on Sunday, the system was positioned at approximately 20.1 South 39.9 East. The central pressure in association with the system is still above 1 000hPa, currently estimated to be 1 005hPa and it is moving due west at approximately 11 knots (20km/h).
Saws explained that while there is still significant uncertainty among numerical weather prediction (NWP) models regarding the intensity and future movement of the system, there is broad agreement, at least in the short term (covering the next one to two days), that the system will continue moving towards the central Mozambique coastline while undergoing a steady but gradual intensification.
It said that in the opinion of the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) at La Reunion (the official source of guidance for tropical systems in the South West Indian Ocean region) the system may intensify sufficiently to attain Moderate Tropical Storm status (with sustained winds of 63 to 80km/h) as early as this evening (Sunday).
Saws said the curved parabolic track suggests the system is likely to be overland, over southern Mozambique on Tuesday, then exiting southern Mozambique near Xai-Xai on Wednesday.
“Whilst the eastern parts of South Africa are not expected to be directly affected by this system, the lowveld regions of Mpumalanga and Limpopo, as well as northern KwaZulu-Natal could experience a spell of windy, rainy weather in the period between Tuesday and Thursday this week,” Saws said.
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