Durban - Energy experts have raised concerns at the missed deadline on Gwede Mantashe’s Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) 2019 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP 2019) and the severe consequences it could have on short-term initiatives to deal with load shedding.
The plan had been criticised for being outdated, especially given the current energy crisis.
Energy expert Lungile Mashele said the government had earlier indicated that the IRP 2019 and a plan involving 3 000 MW of gas capacity would be released at the end of March.
“Both of these things have not materialised and this is extremely worrying given the state of where we find ourselves currently, where there is an electricity minister who seems to be sourcing additional capacity.
“You also have a situation where the premiers of different provinces have done their own energy roadshows, flying all over the world trying to secure their own capacity.”
Mashele said this was concerning “as everyone had to work from the same energy plan”.
“One of the key reasons is that the IRP 2019 and the Integrated Energy Plan have to take into account the resource endowments of the country, GDP and growth for each sector, but more importantly they also need to look at tariffs.”
Mashele said whatever new capacity was brought into the country will have tariff implications.
“All of this is happening while Eskom is sourcing their own capacity. They are looking for 1 000MW from neighbouring countries and they have a rooftop solar plan. The consumer is going to have to pay for all this additional capacity and if there is no adequate planning we will end up in a situation where the consumer is loaded with all these tariffs from local government, provincial and at national level – tariffs that they will not be able to pay for.”
Another energy expert, Professor Wikus van Niekerk, said delays in the DMRE’s IRP 2019 would have a knock-on effect on the short-term emergency crisis plan needed to deal with the current Eskom issues.
“The IRP is a 20 to 30-year plan and based on that plan we need an emergency resource plan that says what will be done over the next five years. The short-term plan is crucial and it worries me that it is not well-known what is being planned.” Van Niekerk said the primary responsibility for short-term planning should reside with Eskom but there was confusion over who was taking charge of the emergency plan.
“The president has appointed a new electricity minister and this is a big mess, which is getting worse.”
DMRE spokesperson Makhosonke Buthelezi had not responded to questions at the time of publication.
DA MP Kevin Mileham said without an updated IRP, South Africa will be forced to continue relying on the outdated energy assumptions of IRP 2019, which do not reflect what must be done to address the electricity crisis.
Mileham said Mantashe has repeatedly failed to produce an updated IRP, compromising the country’s ability to make costed projections on electricity demand and the energy sources needed to address it.
“A major shortcoming of IRP 2019 is it still pushes for prioritised investments in new coal power plants and nuclear energy.”