Durban - Most economists are predicting minimal relief for South African consumers, with a slight decrease in the petrol price and an increase in the diesel price next week.
Economist Dawie Roodt said the petrol price was expected to decrease by 15 cents a litre, while he also anticipated a slight increase in the diesel price of about 15 cents a litre.
“We can attribute these changes to the fact that the international price of Brent crude oil and the price of diesel went up a bit. It was fortunate that the rand appreciated against the US dollar which resulted in the decrease in the petrol price.”
Roodt added that the petrol price decrease was very small.
“I’m afraid the small decrease in the fuel price won’t be able to make much of a difference to something like inflation, and I also don’t expect it to have a significant impact on the economy.”
Professor Irrshad Kaseeram, from the University of Zululand’s Economics Department, said the data showed that the petrol price was set to fall by 10 to 14 cents, while diesel was set to rise by a similar margin.
“This is good news for petrol prices as it is a further decrease from last month’s massive drop of around R1.”
Kaseeram added that diesel, on the other hand, had a huge drop last month of close to R1.30 and a marginal rise this month.
“Although bad for the long-hauling transport industry, it is not expected to translate into further rounds of food prices rising because of previous month’s savings gains.”
Professor Bonke Dumisa, an independent economic analyst, had a similar forecast for petrol.
“I have looked at the data and it definitely suggests a decrease in the petrol price. The Brent crude price is at $75 a barrel which is one of the reasons for the decrease in the petrol price.
“The rand is stronger currently than it was in May which is another positive sign.”
Dumisa added that he was not sure about the diesel price. “It really all depends on the Central Energy Fund. Every month they predict how much money they will spend on buying Brent crude oil. So it really depends on that and this will determine if we are going to see an increase or decrease in the price of diesel.”
Advocate Lavan Gopaul, an economist and director of Merchant Afrika, said he expected increases in both diesel and petrol prices of between 15 to 20 cents a litre. “This will undoubtedly affect consumers who are already paying high interest rates and higher prices for food and goods.”