Johannesburg - The downward trend in fuel prices that we’ve seen in the past few months has come to an end and early indications show that South Africans are likely to pay more for fuel from the beginning of November.
Although it is too early in the month to make an accurate fuel price prediction, the latest data released by the Central Energy Fund shows that increases for petrol and diesel are highly likely, it just remains a question of how steep.
The month-to-date average under-recovery for petrol stands at 37 cents for 95 Unleaded and 47 cents for 93 Unleaded, but daily data from the past week suggests that the increase for petrol is likely to fall somewhere between 60 cents and R1 a litre.
It’s even worse news for those with diesel vehicles, with early indications pointing towards an increase of between R1.50 and R2.00.
A weaker rand, battered by load-shedding and global economic uncertainty, as well as higher oil prices, are weighing down on the fuel price calculation.
Last week, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) agreed on its biggest production cut since the pandemic, which has caused the price of Brent Crude oil to hover around the $94 (about R1 700) mark in the past week, up from an average of around $85 in September.
The International Energy Agency has warned that Opec’s actions could tip the global economy into recession.
"With unrelenting inflationary pressures and interest rate hikes taking their toll, higher oil prices may prove the tipping point for a global economy already on the brink of recession," the agency told CNN recently.
Although the past three months have seen substantial petrol price decreases, these came on the back of even steeper increases earlier in the year, and motorists are paying well more than R20 per litre for the various grades of fuel.
95 Unleaded petrol costs R21.71 at the coast and R22.26 in the inland regions, where 93 ULP retails at R22.06. Now consider that 95 Unleaded (coastal) cost just R14.16 at the beginning of 2021, and R17.61 last October.
Thanks to Opec’s antics, it appears that motorists and commuters are in for a rough ride for the remainder of 2022.