As South African gear up for the crucial 2024 national and provincial election, concerns are mounting over the erosion of voter participation, particularly among the youth, and a steady decline in voter turnout over the years.
We analyse historical voter registration data by the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) alongside current trends and reveal alarming insights into the state of South Africa's electoral landscape.
Youth disengagement
The demographic breakdown of registered voters by age groups underscores a worrying trend of youth disengagement.
Figures reveal that individuals aged 18-19 make up a mere 0.91% and 1.18% of the total registered voter population for males and females, respectively.
Similarly, voter registration rates among the 18-20 age group remain dismally low, with less than 20% of individuals in this cohort registering to vote.
Registered voters for 2024
As mentioned above, in the 18-19 age group, male registered voters constitute 0.91% of the total, totalling 251,286, while female voters in the same age group account for 1.18%, with a total of 328,115.
Moving to the 20-29 age group, male voters represent 7.25% of the registered voter population, numbering 2,009,523, whereas female voters in this age bracket make up 8.86%, totalling 2,455,924.
In the 30-39 age category, male registered voters comprise 11.4% of the total voter base, amounting to 3,159,185, while female voters in this age group make up 13.2%, totalling 3,658,799.
The 40-49 age group sees 10.25% of registered voters being male, accounting for 2,841,413 individuals, while female voters in this age range constitute 11.28%, totalling 3,127,413.
Moving to the 50-59 age group, male voters represent 7.38% of the total registered voter population, numbering 2,046,989, while female voters in this age category make up 9%, totalling 2,494,062.
In the 60-69 age bracket, male registered voters constitute 4.72% of the total, amounting to 1,307,948 individuals, while female voters in this age group account for 6.46%, totalling 1,792,152.
In the 70-79 age group, male voters represent 2.08% of the total registered voters, numbering 575,556, while female voters in this age bracket make up 3.37%, totalling 935,274.
For individuals aged 80 and above, male registered voters account for 0.79% of the total, amounting to 217,991, while female voters in this age group make up 1.88%, totalling 522,190.
Registered voters per province
Furthermore, here's a breakdown of registered voters by province in South Africa:
In the Eastern Cape province, there are 3,439,325 registered voters, constituting approximately 12.41% of the total registered voter population in South Africa.
Moving to the Free State province, there are 1,456,935 registered voters, accounting for approximately 5.26% of the total registered voter population.
Gauteng province, a significant economic and political hub, has 6,542,033 registered voters, making up about 23.6% of the total registered voter population in South Africa.
Kwazulu-Natal province boasts 5,738,272 registered voters, representing around 20.7% of the total registered voter population.
Mpumalanga province has 2,025,074 registered voters, making up about 7.3% of the total registered voter population.
The Northern Cape province has 656,831 registered voters, while Limpopo province has 2,779,668 registered voters, accounting for approximately 10.03% of the total registered voter population.
In the North West province, there are 1,768,580 registered voters, making up around 6.38% of the total registered voter population.
Finally, the Western Cape province has 3,317,102 registered voters, constituting approximately 11.96% of the total registered voter population in South Africa.
Historical voter registration
The number of eligible voters in 1994 was estimated at 21.7 million -- about 16 million of whom had never voted before. In a radical departure from previous electoral practise, no formal voter register was prepared; instead, voters were asked to present identity books as proof of citizenship.
For the 1999 national elections, there were a total of 18,172,751 registered voters.
In the 2004 election, the total registered voters amounted to 20,674 923 and in the 2009 national elections, there were 23,181,997 registered voters.
For the 2014 national and provincial election, there were 25,388,082 registered voters and in 2019, there were 26,756,649 registered voters.
Historical voter turnout trends
Since the historic 1994 national election that marked the end of apartheid, South Africa has witnessed a steady decline in voter turnout. In 1999, voter turnout stood at an impressive 89.3%, but this figure has dwindled over the years, with the 2019 election recording a turnout of just 66.05%. The most recent local general election in 2021 saw a paltry 45.86% of registered voters casting their ballots, indicating a troubling disengagement from the democratic process.
Causes of apathy
According to a survey conducted by the Human Science Research Council (HSRC), voter apathy, particularly among the youth, is due to widespread dissatisfaction with government performance, political parties, and the overall state of democracy. Many young people express a lack of trust in politicians and perceive their individual votes as inconsequential in effecting meaningful change.
Challenges ahead
Efforts to combat voter apathy face significant challenges, including the prevailing mood of discontent among South Africans with the functioning of electoral democracy.
The HSRC survey paints a stark picture, with 57% of respondents expressing discontent compared to only 28% who are satisfied with the current state of democracy. Addressing these systemic issues requires targeted interventions aimed at restoring faith in the democratic process and empowering citizens, particularly the youth, to actively participate in shaping the country's future.
Call to action
As South Africa approaches the 2024 national election, stakeholders across the political spectrum must prioritise initiatives aimed at revitalising democratic engagement.
This includes comprehensive voter education programmes, efforts to improve accessibility to polling stations, and measures to address socio-economic disparities that contribute to voter disillusionment.
The success of these endeavours hinges on collaborative action from government institutions, civil society organisations, and political leaders to reinvigorate the spirit of democracy and ensure that every voice is heard in the electoral process.
IOL NEWS