Scientists believe that clear-air turbulence will increase over time as a result of climate change.
According to Isabel Smith, a turbulence researcher at the University of Reading’s Department of Meteorology, while there have been some high-profile and concerning stories about aircrafts encountering turbulence incidents in the US recently, extreme turbulence is still very rare.
Smith revealed that several scientific studies done by herself and colleagues at the University of Reading, have projected that clear air turbulence will increase over time as a result of climate change.
“This is because the upper atmosphere is warming faster in the tropics, as a result of greenhouse emissions, than in the polar regions. This greater difference in temperature between low and high latitudes increases wind shear in the jet streams, the high-level wind currents that blow 10 km above our heads where planes fly, which in turn enhances the formation of turbulent patches of air,” said Smith.
Smith said that even so, airliners are much more likely to encounter light turbulence than severe turbulence.
“Most of the time, it will be turbulent enough to knock your drink over and make the journey feel a bit bumpy, but not enough to cause any serious injuries. The main problem with clear air turbulence for pilots is that it develops where there are no clouds, so it is hard to see or detect with on-board radar equipment,” she said.
She said as a result, turbulence can hit an aircraft suddenly and without warning and this is almost always fine for the plane, but can be uncomfortable for passengers.
“This is why airlines recommend when travelling to wear your seat belt as much as possible, even when the seatbelt signs are switched off. When clear air turbulence is reported by pilots, airlines will try to avoid turbulence as much as possible for later flights in the area. As a result, as turbulence increases in the future, flight routes may become longer and more convoluted in order to avoid them. These longer travel and waiting times would also increase fuel consumption and emit more CO2,” said Smith.
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